Characteristic of Internal and External Sources

As of 01.01.05, remaining gas reserves totaled 1,023.0 bcm.

Due to a number of factors production conditions at the gas fields that have already been brought into development are getting ever more complicated. More than 75% of gas fields have initial recoverable reserves less than 10 billion cubic meters. Only 4 gas fields had initial recoverable gas reserves over 100 bcm (Yablunivske, Yefremivske, Zahidno-Khrestyshchenske, and Shebelynske). It is important that today too, these 4 gas fields provide for more than 25% of current natural gas production.

Ukraine's gas production is facing problems also due to the fact that more than 15% of its gas reserves fall under the 'hard-to-recover' category by such criteria as reserves depletion degree and reservoir properties of the rock. They are categorized as low-permeable reservoirs, multipay fields, with high lithologic heterogeneity, both in terms of area and pay zone thickness. Virtually all reserves in the Precarpathian fields are hard to recover. The development of hard-to-extract reserves require specific, scientific-intensive and high-cost processes and technology be employed.

Based on data regarding forecast changes in efficiency of geological-geophysical studies and prospect drilling, a preliminary estimate of possible increment of explored gas reserves was made for the forecast period. It was assumed that gas-well prospect drilling will achieve the levels provided for under the National Program 'Oil and Gas of Ukraine until 2010', i.e. 415,000 meters/year, which is 2.5 times more than the actual scope of gas-well prospect drilling operations in 2004. The calculations show that given such conditions over the forecast period (2006-2030), the explored reserves can be incremented up to 1,022.7 bcm based on the best-case scenario, and up to 670 bcm based on the pessimistic scenario.

Gas production levels over the short- and long-term period will be determined by the following factors:

  • enhancing efficiency of hydrocarbon production from fields currently under operation;
  • accelerated development of new reserves;
  • bringing gas prices to economically justified level for all consumer categories.

Given the gas production history of fields brought into development, and forecast changes in explored hydrocarbon resources, gas production volumes over the forecast period have been calculated (internal sources, base-case scenario).

Gas Production in Ukraine, bcm

Gas Production in Ukraine, bcm

Based on the best-case scenario, natural gas production in Ukraine is expected at 23.5 bcm in 2010, 25.5 bcm in 2015, 26.6 bcm in 2020, and 30.1 bcm in 2030; and based on the worth-case scenario, 20.8 bcm in 2010, 23.0 bcm in 2015, 24.6 bcm in 2020, and 26.9 bcm in 2030.

It is expected that gas production over the forecast period will be carried out mainly by domestic companies.

Foreign investment and state-of-the-art technologies of international oil and gas companies will be used for geological survey works and natural gas production operations in the deep-water area of the Black Sea shelf.